Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023750 0.026997 0.030539 0.034692 0.039432 0.044675 0.050922
2025-02-23 0.018506 0.022903 0.028132 0.034820 0.043164 0.053254 0.066414
2025-03-02 0.015393 0.020169 0.026190 0.034358 0.045186 0.059097 0.078406
2025-03-09 0.013639 0.018727 0.025453 0.035032 0.048383 0.066419 0.092786
2025-03-16 0.011970 0.017106 0.024180 0.034684 0.049969 0.071537 0.104520
2025-03-23 0.011065 0.016395 0.024013 0.035758 0.053536 0.079633 0.121218
2025-03-30 0.009730 0.014887 0.022504 0.034650 0.053689 0.082648 0.130527
2025-04-06 0.008771 0.013824 0.021518 0.034177 0.054680 0.086913 0.142080
2025-04-13 0.007769 0.012584 0.020121 0.032887 0.054193 0.088729 0.149758
2025-04-20 0.007400 0.012309 0.020208 0.033969 0.057626 0.097144 0.169216
2025-04-27 0.007024 0.011982 0.020167 0.034813 0.060707 0.105215 0.188860
2025-05-04 0.006725 0.011749 0.020254 0.035865 0.064218 0.114310 0.211214
2025-05-11 0.006222 0.011129 0.019639 0.035656 0.065526 0.119741 0.227657
2025-05-18 0.005826 0.010664 0.019255 0.035828 0.067551 0.126682 0.247747
2025-05-25 0.005379 0.010061 0.018562 0.035351 0.068285 0.131243 0.263634
2025-06-01 0.005134 0.009812 0.018495 0.036045 0.071325 0.140482 0.289846
2025-06-08 0.004778 0.009316 0.017918 0.035686 0.072234 0.145591 0.308064
2025-06-15 0.004628 0.009208 0.018074 0.036793 0.076204 0.157226 0.341322
2025-06-22 0.004238 0.008589 0.017170 0.035651 0.075390 0.158878 0.353030
2025-06-29 0.003954 0.008158 0.016607 0.035164 0.075906 0.163360 0.371472
2025-07-06 0.003611 0.007577 0.015689 0.033835 0.074464 0.163459 0.379887
2025-07-13 0.003527 0.007536 0.015890 0.034950 0.078529 0.176085 0.418931
2025-07-20 0.003425 0.007446 0.015977 0.035819 0.082117 0.187968 0.457508